2018 Commercial/Multifamily Originations Forecast to Match 2017’s Record Year

Adam DeSanctis
(202) 557-2727

WASHINGTON, D.C. (November 7, 2018) - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects commercial and multifamily originations to close the year roughly on par with the record activity seen in 2017.   

MBA projects commercial and multifamily mortgage originations to total $532 billion in 2018 - essentially flat from last year's record volume of $530 billion. Mortgage banker originations of just multifamily mortgages are forecast to rise 7 percent this year to $251 billion, with total multifamily lending at $302 billion. After the strong growth seen in recent years, multifamily lending is expected to rise 2 percent in 2019.

"Commercial real estate finance markets are on pace to match last year's record volumes of borrowing and lending," said Jamie Woodwell, MBA's vice president of commercial real estate research. "Property incomes and values continue to grow, albeit at slower paces than previous years, and the amount of capital looking to be placed in real estate and debt remains robust. We anticipate that much of the momentum seen this year will carry on into 2019."

Commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding is expected to continue to grow in 2018, ending the year more than 6 percent higher than last year.  

MBA's commercial/multifamily members can download a copy of MBA's Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance Forecast at www.mba.org/crefresearch.