MBA Forecasts Commercial/Multifamily Originations Flat in 2018

MBA NewsLink Staff

November 02, 2017


Commercial and multifamily mortgage originations should increase in 2017 to end the year at $515 billion--up 5 percent from 2016--the Mortgage Bankers Association projected. Volumes should remain at roughly that level in 2018 as well.

Mortgage banker originations of just multifamily mortgages should reach $235 billion in 2017, with total multifamily lending at $271 billion, MBA predicted. After strong growth in 2017, multifamily lending is expected to slow slightly in 2018.

"Commercial and multifamily markets remain strong, even as many growth measures are exhibiting a bit of a downshift," said MBA Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research Jamie Woodwell.

Woodwell said property values are up 6 percent through the first eight months of the year. "Despite a decline in property sales transactions, commercial and multifamily mortgage originations were 15 percent higher during the first half of this year than a year earlier," he said. "We expect stable property markets and strong capital availability to continue to support mortgage borrowing and lending in 2018."

Commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding is expected to continue to grow in 2017, ending the year roughly six percent higher than at the end of 2016, MBA said.

MBA's commercial/multifamily members can download a copy of MBA's Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance Forecast at mba.org/crefresearch.

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