Since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, commercial real estate practitioners have been faced with two fundamental questions: How would properties perform through the pandemic and what would conditions look like on the other side - after the pandemic?
On Wednesday, May 5, 2021, U.S. District Court Judge Dabney Friedrich issued an order vacating the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) national eviction moratorium, but also put a temporary pause on the order, meaning that (as of this writing) the CDC moratorium, which is scheduled to expire on June 30, 2021, remains in place. A number of state-level bans also remain.
One of the most striking aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on commercial and multifamily real estate has been the disparity in the ways different property types have been affected.
The US economy continued to rebound during the fourth quarter of 2020 but did so at a slower pace than Q3 of 2020 or what is expected to be recorded in Q1 2021.
MBA's annual Commercial Real Estate Finance/Multifamily Housing Convention & Expo (CREF) always serves as key kick-off to the year, bringing together thousands of industry professionals to learn, share and network, and to re-assess their outlooks for the markets. Although this year's conference was moved from San Diego to cyberspace, the conversations still provided essential insights about the year ahead.
When the Covid-19 pandemic hit the United States in March, it raised two fundamental questions for owners, lenders and others involved in commercial real estate: a) How would properties get through the pandemic and recession and b) What would the "new normal" be for the sector post-pandemic? One thing became crystal clear early on - the answers to those two questions would vary dramatically by property type.
One way to gauge potential commercial mortgage‐backed securities (CMBS) issuance volume is by looking at the spreads investors are willing to pay for bonds. Based on current new‐issue spreads, 2021 could line‐up to be a strong year.
Commercial and multifamily mortgage origination volumes tend to move nearly in lockstep with property sales activity. With the onset of the COVID‐19 pandemic, both tumbled, but with some important caveats.
One of the most striking aspects of the pandemic's impact on commercial real estate markets is the markedly disparate impact it is having on different property types.
Jamie Woodwell, Vice President of Research and Economics at Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), joined the RealCrowd Podcast to discuss commercial real estate during COVID crisis.
When real estate professionals discuss the impacts of the COVID‐19 pandemic on commercial real estate, their comments generally come in one of four themes: Countercyclical, Speedbump, Fundamental Change and Accelerated.
The economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is unlike anything the U.S. has previously seen. And so this updating of MBA's commercial real estate finance (CREF) forecast can be viewed as an exercise in hubris, or folly. We generally agree.
The $3.7 trillion commercial and multifamily mortgage market is really a confederation of different capital sources, property types and geographic markets, all bound together by the provision of mortgage capital backed by investment property incomes and collateral value. Often, the overall market moves in tandem. At other times - like now - different segments act very differently.
Richard Barkham, Global Head of Research and Chief Economist at CBRE, and Jamie Woodwell, Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research at MBA, discuss how the COVID-19 outbreak has had an immediate effect on commercial real estate fundamentals and capital market activity. The reduction in economic activity that followed social distancing, the sharp stock market drop, and mass layoffs has a direct impact on real estate occupancy, lending, valuations and investment. The panel will share their observations and outlooks across property types using a combination of high-frequency data from the commercial mortgage and leasing markets with the early observable impacts on Q1 2020 property performance.