January Jobs Report Commentary from MBA's Mike Fratantoni

The following is MBA SVP and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni’s reaction to this morning’s U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report on employment conditions in January.

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“The January jobs report shows modest improvement relative to prior months. However, the job gains continue to be focused in just a few sectors, matching the uneven pace of economic growth we are seeing in many data releases. Overall, this report provides support for FOMC officials who have voted to keep rates steady for the time being.

“The unemployment rate declined to 4.3 percent in January, down from 4.4 percent in December. There was a decline in the number of long-term unemployed workers, as well as in the U6 measure of underemployment. Job growth averaged only 15,000 per month in 2025 following downward revisions to November and December numbers. As a result of the benchmark revisions that were released with this month’s results, total nonfarm employment in December 2025 was more than 1 million jobs below the prior estimate.

“January started off 2026 on a stronger note with a gain of 130,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis. There were solid gains in health care, social assistance, and non-residential construction jobs. Federal government employment has declined by 10.9 percent since October 2024. Wage growth slowed a bit to 3.7 percent from 3.8 percent in December.

“From a housing market perspective, a stronger job market should improve consumer confidence and support demand this spring."