February Jobs Report Commentary from MBA's Mike Fratantoni

The following is MBA SVP and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni’s reaction to this morning’s U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report on employment conditions in February.

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“In 2025, job growth slowed to a crawl, and what little growth there was came from just a few sectors, notably health care. In February, with job losses in health care due to labor strikes, there was nothing left to support aggregate job growth, and the total declined by 92,000. Furthermore, job growth for December and January was revised down by a total of 69,000. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.4% in February as more workers re-entered the labor market but were unable to find work immediately. Wage growth increased slightly to 3.8% over the past year.

“The job market is softening and inflation is expected to increase due to a spike in oil prices resulting from the war in Iran. Although this month’s job numbers were weaker than expected, we do not expect the FOMC to cut rates any time soon given the heightened inflation risk. MBA is sticking to its forecast that mortgage rates will remain in a range of 6% to 6.5% over the forecast horizon. A softer job market will be a headwind for housing demand as we enter the spring homebuying season.”