April Jobs Report Commentary from MBA's Mike Fratantoni

The following is MBA SVP and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni’s reaction to this morning’s U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report on employment conditions in April.

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“The April employment report showed positive trends, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3 percent, employment growth at a solid 115,000, and wage growth picking up to 3.6 percent at an annual rate. However, the three-month trend is not quite as strong, with job growth averaging only 48,000, including the net downward revisions to the job counts for the prior two months. And the job growth was concentrated in just a few sectors, including health care, social assistance, retail trade, and transportation.  

“Other trends over the past year also paint a different picture. The labor force participation rate has declined from 62.6 to 61.8 percent. The labor force, the total number of people either employed or actively looking for work and counted as unemployed, has declined by more than 1 million. And the number of people employed has declined by more than 1.2 million. The U-6 measure, now at 8.2 percent, captures some of this shift in individuals leaving the labor force.

“All in, the job market is holding together reasonably well, but it is not as strong as the April headline would suggest. The implications are that there is not enough job market weakness to change the direction of Fed policy. MBA expects that the Fed will hold off on rate cuts for the foreseeable future, and there is enough concern about the labor market to keep at least some potential homebuyers hesitant about their own job situation."