FOMC Commentary from MBA's Mike Fratantoni

The following is MBA SVP and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni’s commentary following the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement released this afternoon on monetary policy and the economy:

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“The FOMC held the federal funds rate target steady at its May meeting, dismissing the negative first-quarter GDP reading as solely due to volatility in international trade flows but noting that risks to its inflation and employment targets have increased given the heightened policy uncertainties.

“MBA forecasts that the risks to growth and the job market will wind up being the bigger concern this year, which will lead the Fed to resume cutting short-term rates in the second half of the year. Until then, the hard data on inflation and unemployment will continue to drive interest rates, including mortgage rates, from one end of a trading range to the other, with only a slight downward trend in mortgage rates over the remainder of 2025.

“Purchase mortgage application volume continues to run ahead of last year’s pace, and MBA forecasts that will be true for the year as a whole, even with the rate volatility we have experienced.”