Chart of the Week
Every Friday, MBA's Chart of the Week provides commentary and analysis on a topic of interest for the industry. This comes from variety of data sources, including proprietary data from MBA's own surveys and studies, as well as from government agencies and other reliable sources of mortgage, housing, and economic data.
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Current Chart of the Week
First-time homebuyers[i] (FTHBs) are an incredibly important group to the housing market, particularly given the lock-in effect, which is causing many older homeowners to forego moves. Studying the profiles and preferences of FTHBs is key for housing analysts and policymakers focused on housing preferences, affordability, and overall financial well-being. This week’s Chart of the Week is an update to what we did in December 2025, in response to a Washington Post article examining alternative estimates of FTHB age. We explored the Washington Post’s analysis and have added other data sources and updated data on current FTHB age trends.
Estimates of the age of a typical FTHB vary depending on the definitions used and the data source. The National Association of REALTORS (NAR), using a mail survey with 6,103 respondents in 2025, reported that the median age of an FTHB was 40 in 2025, up from 38 in 2024, continuing a trend of increasing FTHB age that began in 2014, when the median age was 31.
While this data point has received numerous headlines, most large-scale data sources tell a different story. The National Mortgage Database (NMDB), based on millions of mortgage records, showed a much smaller increase, with the median age increasing from 30 to 33 through 2024, then decreasing to 32 in 2025. Data from Cotality, based on millions of mortgage applications, show that the median FTHB age has been essentially flat at 32, while estimates cited in the Washington Post article provided by analysts using American Housing Survey data from the U.S. Census Bureau show similarly flat trends with medians of 33 years old in 2023, the most recent data from the Census at this time.
AEI and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York updated their analysis, which was based on data from the Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax, which showed that the median age of FTHBs in 2025 was 34, up slightly from 33 in 2024.
A blog post from NewRez showed that, from 2022 to 2025, the median FTHB age was 33, based on purchase originations in their portfolio over the same period.
Finally, Redfin published an analysis using data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement, which showed the median FTHB age in 2025 was 35, down from 36 in 2024.
On average, home prices increased more than 50 percent from the beginning of this decade to the start of 2025. Even with recent declines in asking rents and MBA’s expectations for modest home-price softening, housing remains expensive for many households, as reflected in measures such as MBA’s PAPI and the increased use of FHA mortgages according to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey data.
Addressing the affordability challenges in both rental and homeowner markets is a key public policy issue today. It is important to have a clear picture of the state of the market. Our analysis of these data indicates that the typical FTHB today is likely not much older than one a decade ago.
[i] The IRS, for the 2008 FTHB tax credits, defined a FTHB as not owning any other principal residence for three years prior to the date of purchase of the new principal residence for which the credit is being claimed. The Cotality estimate considers a FTHB as someone who, in their proprietary home-loan application database, has never owned a property. The NMDB estimate is based on a FTHB using a mortgage and who have not purchased a home in the prior seven years. The NY Fed defines a FTHB as someone who had never had a mortgage lien and their data do not include FTHBs who were strictly cash buyers. NewRez defines a FTHB as not having owned a principal residence in the prior three years. Redfin’s analysis was based on homebuyers who moved in order to own a home or start their own household.