Chart of the Week


COTW

Source:  MBA Weekly Application Survey

The ARM share of mortgage applications has increased to 7.2 percent of all applications in February 2017, led by 7/1 ARMs and followed in share by 5/1 and 10/1 ARM products.  The ARM share has increased for both purchase and refinance applications, although in different contexts.  In early 2017, purchase applications have been flat to slightly increasing on a year over year basis, but the number of purchase ARM applications increased at a more rapid rate.  Over the same period, refinance applications fell on a year over year basis but refinance ARM applications did not decline as quickly, leading to an increase in share. 

Historically, the ARM share has increased when entering a purchase market and as rates rise.  Home buyers in a strong housing market tend to look for ways to extend their purchasing power, and ARMs are one way to do that.  However, while the ARM share got as high as 35 percent pre-crisis, it is highly unlikely it will climb that far again given the QM regulation which effectively prohibits many types of ARMs that were prevalent pre-crisis, and simply tighter credit in general. Additionally, mortgage rates are more than 2 percent lower than when the ARM share peaked.        

- Lynn Fisher; Joel Kan; Mike Fratantoni.

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March 2017
3/24/17 ARM Loans as Share of All Applications
3/17/17 Housing Starts in 1-4 Unit and 5+ Unit Structures
3/10/17 Mortgage Credit Availability Index
3/3/17 UPB of Non-Bank Commercial Multifamily Mortgages, by Year of Maturity

February 2017
2/24/2017 CPI and Selected Components

2/17/17 Total Paste Due Rates, By Loan Type
2/10/2017 FHA Average Credit Scores on New Endorsements
2/3/17- 2017 MBA CREF Outlook Survey Results

January 2017
1/27/17 Federal Direct Student Loans in Repayment ($B), By Repayment Type
1/20/17- Distribution of Refinance Activity
1/13/17- History of FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums
1/6/17- Share of Servicing Loan Count by Institution Type

December 2016
12/22/16 Purchase Applications Around the Holidays
12/16/16 GNMA-FNMA Credit Swap Prices
12/9/16 IMB Production Employees and Non-Sales Employee Share
12/2/16 ARM Share

November 2016
11/23/16 Percentage of Loans in the Foreclosure Process
11/18/16 FHA Purchase Loan Count as Share of New and Existing Home Sales
11/10/16 10-Year Treasury Yield Following Election Night
11/4/16- Multifamily Lending by Investor Group

October 2016
10/28/16 Estimated Mortgage Originations: 1999-2019
10/21/16 CPI and its Motor Fuel Component
10/14/16 Largest Q2 Gains and Lossess in Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding

September 2016
9/30/16 Monthly Existing Home Sales 2014-2016
9/23/16 Purchase and Refinance Average Loan Sizes
9/16/16 FHFA Home Price Indexes
9/9/16 Latest Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Rates and Range Since 1996
9/2/16 Pre-Tax Production Profit of IMBs

August 2016
8/26/16 Year-to-Date Net Change in Bank Holdings of Multifamily and Other Commercial Property Loans, by Week ($billions), As of August 10, 2016
8/19/16 Share of Loans in Foreclosure (%) and Real House Prices (indexed), by State
8/12/16 Conventional Purchase Applications - Average Loan Size by Product
8/5/16 Share of Investors Offering 97 LTV Conventional Affordable Loan Products

July 2016
7/29/16 Servicing Costs per Loan: Performing vs. Non-Performing
7/15/16 Credit Score Distribution of FHA Single Family Endorsements
7/8/16 Growth in Median Household Incomes and Costs of Living

June 2016
6/24/16 Monthly Underwriting Productivity
6/17/16 How Are US 10 Year Rates Impacted by Global Trends?
6/10/16 IMB Production Profit and Volume
6/3/16 Change in Outstanding Balance of Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage ($billions)

May 2016
5/27/16 Adult Population Mobility 1996-2015
5/20/16 The Cascade of Diverted and Dissolved Households: Actual and Expected Growth in Renters and Owners, 2006 to 2012 (Millions)
5/13/16 Year-to-Date Change in the Balance of Multifamily Mortgages on the Books of Commercial Banks ($billions)
5/6/16 Purchase Applications by Loan Size: Year over Year Changes

April 2016
4/29/16 Estimated Q1 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations 2002-2016 by Investor Group ($billions)
4/22/16 Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims (SA, Thous.)
4/15/16 Purchase Application Index by Week of Year
4/8/16 Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Originations by Capital Source ($billions)
4/1/16 Regression-Adjusted Age Profile of Memory Measures

March 2016
3/25/16 Refinance Applications and Average Loan Size
3/18/16 CMBS and Corporate Spreads to Swaps (bps)
3/11/16 Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker
3/4/16 Annual Growth in Payroll Enrollment

February 2016
2/26/16 Cumulative STACR Debt Note and ACIS Transactions as of December 31, 2015
2/19/16 Oil States vs. U.S. Average: 2015 Foreclosure Starts Rate (NSA)
2/12/16 Ratio of Unemployed Workers Per Job Opening
2/5/16 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Originations

January 2016
1/29/16 Inflation Trends
1/22/16 Indexed Growth of Nonfarm Payroll Employment for "Oil" States
1/15/16 Changes in Population Age 25-44 and Single Family Starts
1/8/16 A Flattening U.S. Yield Curve

December 2015
12/23/15 Purchase Mortgage Applications and Existing Home Sales
12/18/15 Net Change in Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding ($M)
12/11/15 Retail Closings per Proudction Employee per Month for IMBs
12/4/15  House Prices Relative to 2007-Q3  

November 2015
11/20/15 Loans In Foreclosure Process As a Percent of Loans Serviced
11/13/15 VA Purchase Loan Share and Loan Size
11/6/15 Builder Application Survey: Average Loan Size

October 2015
10/30/15 Total Multifamily Mortgage Originations by Investor Group
10/23/15 Mortgage Originations History and Forecast
10/16/15 Single Family Housing Starts and Builders Application Survey Forecast
10/9/15 FHA Share of Purchase Mortgage Originations
10/2/15 Total Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, By Selected Sector

September 2015
9/25/15 HMDA Respondents
9/18/15 Rates and Home Sales
9/11/15 Loan Size Distribution for MBA's Weekly Applications Survey
9/3/15 IMB Net Production Income and Purchase Share

August 2015
8/21/15 Multifamily and Other Commercial Mortgage Delinquency Rates Among Major Investors
8/14/15 Loans in Foreclosure, by State Legal Process
8/7/15 Mortgage Credit Availability Index June 2004 to Present

July 2015
7/31/15 Components of Direct Servicing Costs Per Loan
7/24/15 FHFA US Purchase-Only House Price Index (SA)
7/17/15 Year over Year Change in Builder Application Survey Index
7/10/15 Retail Mortgage Applications per Underwriter
7/2/15 Adjustable Rate Mortgage Share

June 2015
6/26/15 Existing Home Turnover
6/19/15 Aggregate Value of Owner-Occupied Housing
6/12/15 Comparison of 10 Year Bond Yields
6/5/15 Independent Mortgage Banker Production Expenses

May 2015
5/29/15 Change in Number of Households by Age, 2004-2014

5/22/15 Single Family Housing Starts by U.S. Region
5/15/15 History of Mortgage Performance
5/8/15 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Origination Index
5/1/15 Employment Cost Index - Compensation, Year Over Year Percent Change

April 2015
4/24/15 Purchase Application Trends, By Loan Size
4/17/15 Private Location of Western Mortgage Company Headquarters, 1890
4/10/15 Private Job Openings, Hires and Quits

4/3/15 Top 50 Apartment Owners and Top 5 Single-Family Rental Owners  

March 2015
3/27/15 MBA Builder Application Survey and New Housing Starts
3/20/15 GDP, Inflation, and the Fed Funds Rate  
3/13/15 Purchase Mortgage Application Loan Sizes and House Prices   

3/6/15 Number of Renter Households by Income and Level of Housing-Cost Burden  

February 2015
2/27/15 Serious Delinquency Rate by Cohort
2/20/15 Two Years of Interest Rates

2/13/15 Rate of Unemployment and Job Openings 
2/6/15 Commercial and Multifamily Property Prices and Mortgage Debt Outstanding

January 2015
1/30/15 Year-over-Year Percent Changes in U.S. Population and Households 
1/23/15 65 Years of Single-Family and Multifamily Housing Starts 
1/16/15 Refinance Index and 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate 
1/9/15 History of FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums 

December 2014
12/17/14 Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding 
12/12/14 Conventional Mortgage Credit Availability Index 
12/05/14 Independent Mortgage Bankers Production & Income 

November 2014
11/26/14 Who Will Own Mortgage Assets 
11/21/14 A Good Week for Housing
11/14/14 FHA and VA Share of Total Loan Applications


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