Forecasts and Commentary

The market environment changes frequently. MBA's highly regarded economists provide current economic data that factor into industry business decisions on a daily basis. Our forecasts and commentary help you better understand and analyze different trends and changes in the industry - past and present - to strategize for the future.

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"Global and geopolitical concerns continued to weigh on rates and markets. Brexit, trade disputes, and slowing global growth continue to be recurring factors causing concern. These pushed investors to safer US assets and caused rates to decline over the past month. Data indicating softer growth in Europe, primarily Germany, have been a main focus, with rates in Germany even dipping in negative territory for a period. As a result of these declines in rates, we saw a brief surge in refinance activity. We had a three-week period in late March when the 30-year fixed rate dropped from 4.55 percent to 4.36 percent and we saw a pick-up in refinance applications, especially for high loan balance borrowers. We raised our forecast for 2019 refinance volume by $16 billion as a result, and total mortgage originations are now expected to increase to $1.67 trillion in 2019 from $1.64 trillion in 2018." - Joel Kan, Associate Vice President - Economic & Industry Forecasting, MBA

This is MBA's forecast of key indicators of economic health such as GDP, consumer spending, employment and interest rates. View Archive.

This is MBA's mortgage originations forecast, along with estimates of major housing market indicators. View Archive.

Each month MBA economists provide commentary and insights on the current mortgage finance and economic climates. View Archive.

Historical record of single-family, one- to four-unit loan origination estimates. Last updated as of October 2018. 

Looking for Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Forecasts?

MBA’s research on the commercial and multifamily real estate finance (CREF) markets is without peer, and includes the following resources:

Want it Live and In Person?

Joel Kan and Marina Walsh Speak at MBA Servicing 2019

Hear from our MBA Research team at an upcoming MBA Event. Here are a few places you can check them out:

  • On May 20th, during MBA's Secondary Market Conference and Expo, MBA's Michael Fratantoni, Ph.D., Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research and Technology, Mortgage Bankers Association, speaks during the Market Outlook General Session

 

Contact Us

For additional information about all that we offer, contact us at MBAResearch@mba.org