Forecasts and Commentary

The market environment changes frequently. MBA's highly regarded economists provide current economic data that factor into industry business decisions on a daily basis. Our forecasts and commentary help you better understand and analyze different trends and changes in the industry - past and present - to strategize for the future.

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"Since hitting a recent high of over 5 percent in November 2018, the 30 year fixed mortgage rate has fallen more than a percentage point, and homeowners have responded strongly to the drop in rates, as more borrowers are now "in the money" and have a rate incentive to refinance. In the second quarter alone, refinance applications increased 30 percent from the first quarter and in the first two weeks of August, refinance applications surged another 50 percent..." - Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist, MBA

This is MBA's forecast of key indicators of economic health such as GDP, consumer spending, employment and interest rates. View Archive.

This is MBA's mortgage originations forecast, along with estimates of major housing market indicators. View Archive.

Each month MBA economists provide commentary and insights on the current mortgage finance and economic climates. View Archive.

Historical record of single-family, one- to four-unit loan origination estimates. Last updated as of October 2018. 

Looking for Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Forecasts?

MBA’s research on the commercial and multifamily real estate finance (CREF) markets is without peer, and includes the following resources:

Want it Live and In Person?

Joel Kan and Marina Walsh Speak at MBA Servicing 2019

Hear from our MBA Research team at an upcoming MBA Event. Here are a few places you can check them out:

  • On September 12, during MBA's Human Resources Symposium, MBA's Michael Fratantoni, Ph.D., Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research and Technology, and Marina Walsh, Vice President of Industry Analysis, discuss the Economic and Mortgage Market Outlook
  • On September 16, during MBA's Risk Managament, QA and Fruad Prevention Forum, MBA's Michael Fratantoni, Ph.D., Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research and Technology, discusses Balancing Risks in a Changing Market
  • On October 29, during MBA Annual19, MBA's Michael Fratantoni, Ph.D., Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research and Technology, and Marina Walsh, Vice President of Industry Analysis, discuss the Market Outlook for 2020

 

Contact Us

For additional information about all that we offer, contact us at MBAResearch@mba.org