FOMC Commentary from MBA's Mike Fratantoni

September 20, 2023 MBA Economic Forecast MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast Press Release
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The following is MBA SVP and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni’s commentary following the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement released this afternoon on monetary policy and the economy:


“As expected, the Federal Reserve did not change its federal funds rate target at the September meeting. However, the FOMC members’ projections signal that they believe they are not yet done in their fight to bring inflation down. The majority of FOMC members still expect another hike this year, even though core inflation has slowed. And many FOMC members now expect that the pace of cuts in 2024 will be somewhat slower than they had thought in June.

“We expect that inflation will continue to drop closer to the Fed’s target, the job market will continue to slow, and that mortgage rates should begin to reflect that the Fed’s moves in 2024 will be cuts – not further increases. This should provide some relief in terms of better affordability for potential homebuyers.

“The lack of housing inventory continues to be the biggest challenge for many potential buyers.  While homebuilder sentiment is clearly impacted by the recent surge in mortgage rates, permits for single-family homes provide a positive outlook for the pace of construction in the year ahead. If mortgage rates trend down in 2024 as we anticipate, the combination of more homes for sale and somewhat lower rates should support stronger purchase volume.”